Saturday, November 17, 2007

Forex Market Outlook

What a week, i hardly to see a very attractive moving of EURO against US Dollar, each party struggle for the best stone position. Only one conclusion i've got, standstill...damn, i was hoping that last week would be another resistance breaking moment, and it was wrong. Euro chose to taking a rest for a while against USD. From this week price action, the major issue still centered on US recession and accompanying FED rate cuts that have strike the greenback to a big declined so far. The EURO still on a fly high against US Dollar, and as long as it still below the 1.4700, then the pair found its solid resistance there. The long euro stands below that resistance without breaking it, the more certainty that EURO reach its top. This is a very doubtful issue, as the euro continues to hold the uptrend, we are be able to gaining profits on it. But, beware, unless euro breaks 1,4500 then we face a big premature reversal. There is no major concern next week, the calender event is likely to be quiet, we have EZ flash PMI data of any import on the next calender. Will the high euro finally drive the region’s manufacturing sector below the 50 boom/bust line? If not, then i am very sure that Euro will redouble their efforts on a bullish way.
Meanwhile the yen continued to trade around the 110 level with LEI reading printing at 3 year lows. Bottom line, yen’s strength will only come from the carry trade unwind. So we are not pretty much see any interesting point from this currency.
The Cable stuff
The UK central bank would maintain the status quo as BoE came out with a very bad assessment of the UK economy. The unit broke the 2.0400 figure and the next data that will announced within a week to come are likely strengthen the faith that 2.0000 barrier could be tested before this year ended.
Now its time for a conclusion, since the chart provides us with a common pattern,i think the decline was cyclical rather than secular.

2 comments:

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