Play.safe
Dont.Forget.to.Put.SL
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Sunday, August 26, 2007
Friday, August 24, 2007
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Lil.Advice.GU.Next.Week...-31
Play.Safe..Always.put.stop.loss
Take.your.own.risk..
GU.H4.Chart
GU.Daily.Chart
GU.Weekly.Chart
Good.Luck
Take.your.own.risk..
GU.H4.Chart
GU.Daily.Chart
GU.Weekly.Chart
Good.Luck
Is The Fed Inching Closer To A Rate Cut?~31
RTTNEWS
8/18/2007 5:31:28 PM As the euphoria over Federal Reserve's bold step settles down, market participants are divided over whether the symbolic gesture of lowering discount rates mean anything significant to markets. The move signals that the central bank believes that the credit market squeeze poses material risks to growth. According to Wachovia Securities, even a significant cut in the federal funds target rate will not ensure the much-needed liquidity in the mortgage markets.
A discount rate is nothing but the rate at which banks borrow directly from the Fed. Unlike open market operations that call for Treasury bills and agency debt as security, the discount window accepts a wide range of securities, including asset-backed securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities and mortgage-backed securities. In addition to the reduction in the discount rate, the Fed also changed the standard terms of loans at the discount window to allow for borrowing up to 30 days against the usual overnight timeframe.
Following Friday's Fed move, Wachovia Securities said the probability of a Federal funds target rate cut before the September 18th meeting is now reduced. If the credit market recuperates, then even an interest rate cut at the September meeting looks unlikely. However, if the recent credit market turbulence hurts growth further and the core consumer price inflation continues to moderate, the Fed may resort to one or more interest rate reductions later this year.
The past week's economic readings were largely in-line with expectations and did not portend any weakness in growth. Among the reports released last week, retail sales revealed a 0.3% increase in July. Sales, excluding autos, were up a better than expected 0.4%. After auto and gasoline sales were stripped off, the gain was 0.6%. Almost all categories showed fairly good performances. Clothing store sales and sales at department stores rose 1.3% and 1.6%, respectively, suggesting that the concerns over a negative wealth effect pulling down retail sales are unfounded.
Business inventories rose 0.4% in June after increasing at a 0.5% rate in May. The pace of growth in retail inventories slowed to 0.5% in June from 0.7% in May. The inventories to sales ratio is below the highs of the last cycle and accordingly, Wachovia Securities expects inventory build up to add to economic growth in the second half of the year.
The trade gap revealed a narrower than expected deficit of $58.1 billion for June. Wachovia Securities expects the decline in the deficit to add 0.5% to second quarter GDP growth, which was originally reported as 4.2%. Export growth was bolstered by higher shipments of industrial supplies and materials to foreign countries. Another aspect of significance was that petroleum import prices remained flat.
The producer price inflation report suggested a 0.6% spike in wholesale prices in July. Energy prices climbed 2.5% in July, while food prices eased 0.1%. The core producer price inflation rate was 0.1%, which strengthens the case for a pause in the near term. Meanwhile, consumer prices were up 0.1% in July due to a fall in gasoline prices that offset to some extent the impact of higher food costs. The core consumer price inflation rate was 0.2%, rendering the annual gain to 2.2%. One encouraging aspect was the continued moderation in actual and implied rents.
Jobless claims for the recent reporting week unexpectedly rose, casting doubts on the job market's ability to hold up against the backdrop of slowing growth. The housing market data were also not that enterprising. Housing starts declined 6.1% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.381 million units. Building permits, an indicator of future housing activity fell 2.8% to 1.373 million units. With July's decline, housing starts and permits have dropped to levels that prevailed before the housing boom began back in mid-1997. Economists see a 0.5% hurt to GDP due to the softness in starts, while they also believe that the recent credit market turmoil could further impact housing starts, as financing becomes difficult for builders.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed's survey revealed that manufacturing conditions in the mid-Atlantic region stalled. The general business conditions index dropped to 0 in August from 9.2 in July, and the softness is also expected to have nationwide ramifications. However, the new orders index suggested expansion. On a surprising note, the employment and average workweek indexes expanded significantly. One can take comfort from the fact that the future general business conditions index rose to 5.8 points to 36.2.
The upcoming week's economic calendar is very light. The markets get to receive only a few second-tier economic reports. That said, the markets' pre-occupations continue to be the liquidity crisis and the tighter credit markets. The noteworthy reports scheduled to be released in the week are the new home sales and durable goods orders reports for July.
New home sales for July are unlikely to inspire the Street even if they reveal a surprising increase. Market participants are likely to view an increase in sales as a non-event, as they are most likely to have been achieved at the expense of prices. Of late, builders are forced to offer heavy discounts to push sales.
Avery Shenfeld from CIBC World Markets expects 1.4% growth in durable goods orders. Going by the strong order growth reported by Boeing (BA) for July, one can expect a solid increase in the volatile transportation orders. Nonetheless, orders for automobiles may continue to remain weak, given the waning consumer confidence. The all-important non-defense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, are expected to show weakness, in-line with the recent trend. Accordingly, business capital spending is unlikely to offer much support to GDP growth in the near term.
Apart from these reports, the markets may also focus on the Conference Board's leading indicator index for July, the customary weekly jobless claims data for the week ended August 18th and the weekly crude oil inventory report.
Wachovia Securities expects the leading index to show a significant increase in July due to positive contribution from initial claims, consumer confidence, money supply and supplier deliveries.
Monday
The Conference Board is due to release the leading index for July at 10 AM ET on Monday. The index is expected to show a 0.3% increase for the month.
In June, the leading index fell 0.3% in June, reversing the gain of May. The Conference Board noted that the index was lower in four out of the past six months. The largest negative contributions in the month were from housing permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance and consumer expectations. However, the leading and lagging indexes rose 0.2% and 0.5% in June.
Tuesday
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker is scheduled to speak about the U.S. economic outlook in Charlotte, North Carolina at 12:30 PM ET on Tuesday.
Wednesday
The Energy Department's weekly Crude Oil Inventory report is scheduled to be released at 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday.
Crude oil stocks fell 5.2 million barrels in the week ended August 10th to 335.2 million barrels. Notwithstanding the decline, inventories remain above the upper end of the average range for this time of the year. Gasoline stocks declined 1.1 million barrels, and they remain below the lower end of the average range. Meanwhile, distillate inventories edged up 0.2 million barrels and are in the middle of the average range for this time of the year.
The average refinery capacity utilization over the last four weeks was 92.1% compared to 91.9% in the previous week and 92.7% in the year-ago period.
The price of WTI grade crude oil was $71.49 a barrel as of August 10th, down 5.2% from $75.41 a barrel last week and about 3.9% lower than in the year-ago period. The average nationwide price of regular grade gasoline was $2.771 a gallon as of August 13th compared to $2.838 as of August 6th, 2007 and $3 as of August 14th, 2006.
Thursday
The weekly jobless claims for the week ended August 17th are scheduled to be released at 8:30 AM ET on Thursday.
Jobless claims increased 6,000 in the week ended August 11th to 322,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 316,000. Economists expected jobless claims to have eased to 315,000.
The less volatile four-week moving average increased 4,750 to 312,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 307,750. Continuing claims for the week ended August 4th increased to 2.548 million from the preceding week's revised level of 2.547 million.
Friday
The Durable Goods Orders Report, which sheds light on the new orders placed for big-ticket items that last for more than 3 years, is expected to be released at 8:30 AM ET on Friday. Economists expect the report to reveal 1% growth in durable goods orders for July.
Last month, new orders for manufactured durable goods rose 1.3% following a 2.4% decline in May. The bulk of the increase was due to a 7.1% increase in new orders for transportation equipment. Shipment of durable goods fell 1.2%, while unfilled orders rose 1.4%. Inventories edged up merely 0.1%.
Data on New Home Sales, which measures the number of newly constructed homes with committed sale during the month, is scheduled for release at 10 AM ET on Friday. Economists forecast new home sales of 830,000 units for July.
In June, new home sales slid 6.6% to 834,000 from 893,000 in May. Annually, new home sales declined 22.3%. The median sales price of new homes was $237,900, down 2.2% from $243,200 in the year-ago period. New home inventories at the end of June represented a supply of 7.8 months compared to 7.4 months in May and 6.4 months in June 2006.
8/18/2007 5:31:28 PM As the euphoria over Federal Reserve's bold step settles down, market participants are divided over whether the symbolic gesture of lowering discount rates mean anything significant to markets. The move signals that the central bank believes that the credit market squeeze poses material risks to growth. According to Wachovia Securities, even a significant cut in the federal funds target rate will not ensure the much-needed liquidity in the mortgage markets.
A discount rate is nothing but the rate at which banks borrow directly from the Fed. Unlike open market operations that call for Treasury bills and agency debt as security, the discount window accepts a wide range of securities, including asset-backed securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities and mortgage-backed securities. In addition to the reduction in the discount rate, the Fed also changed the standard terms of loans at the discount window to allow for borrowing up to 30 days against the usual overnight timeframe.
Following Friday's Fed move, Wachovia Securities said the probability of a Federal funds target rate cut before the September 18th meeting is now reduced. If the credit market recuperates, then even an interest rate cut at the September meeting looks unlikely. However, if the recent credit market turbulence hurts growth further and the core consumer price inflation continues to moderate, the Fed may resort to one or more interest rate reductions later this year.
The past week's economic readings were largely in-line with expectations and did not portend any weakness in growth. Among the reports released last week, retail sales revealed a 0.3% increase in July. Sales, excluding autos, were up a better than expected 0.4%. After auto and gasoline sales were stripped off, the gain was 0.6%. Almost all categories showed fairly good performances. Clothing store sales and sales at department stores rose 1.3% and 1.6%, respectively, suggesting that the concerns over a negative wealth effect pulling down retail sales are unfounded.
Business inventories rose 0.4% in June after increasing at a 0.5% rate in May. The pace of growth in retail inventories slowed to 0.5% in June from 0.7% in May. The inventories to sales ratio is below the highs of the last cycle and accordingly, Wachovia Securities expects inventory build up to add to economic growth in the second half of the year.
The trade gap revealed a narrower than expected deficit of $58.1 billion for June. Wachovia Securities expects the decline in the deficit to add 0.5% to second quarter GDP growth, which was originally reported as 4.2%. Export growth was bolstered by higher shipments of industrial supplies and materials to foreign countries. Another aspect of significance was that petroleum import prices remained flat.
The producer price inflation report suggested a 0.6% spike in wholesale prices in July. Energy prices climbed 2.5% in July, while food prices eased 0.1%. The core producer price inflation rate was 0.1%, which strengthens the case for a pause in the near term. Meanwhile, consumer prices were up 0.1% in July due to a fall in gasoline prices that offset to some extent the impact of higher food costs. The core consumer price inflation rate was 0.2%, rendering the annual gain to 2.2%. One encouraging aspect was the continued moderation in actual and implied rents.
Jobless claims for the recent reporting week unexpectedly rose, casting doubts on the job market's ability to hold up against the backdrop of slowing growth. The housing market data were also not that enterprising. Housing starts declined 6.1% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.381 million units. Building permits, an indicator of future housing activity fell 2.8% to 1.373 million units. With July's decline, housing starts and permits have dropped to levels that prevailed before the housing boom began back in mid-1997. Economists see a 0.5% hurt to GDP due to the softness in starts, while they also believe that the recent credit market turmoil could further impact housing starts, as financing becomes difficult for builders.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed's survey revealed that manufacturing conditions in the mid-Atlantic region stalled. The general business conditions index dropped to 0 in August from 9.2 in July, and the softness is also expected to have nationwide ramifications. However, the new orders index suggested expansion. On a surprising note, the employment and average workweek indexes expanded significantly. One can take comfort from the fact that the future general business conditions index rose to 5.8 points to 36.2.
The upcoming week's economic calendar is very light. The markets get to receive only a few second-tier economic reports. That said, the markets' pre-occupations continue to be the liquidity crisis and the tighter credit markets. The noteworthy reports scheduled to be released in the week are the new home sales and durable goods orders reports for July.
New home sales for July are unlikely to inspire the Street even if they reveal a surprising increase. Market participants are likely to view an increase in sales as a non-event, as they are most likely to have been achieved at the expense of prices. Of late, builders are forced to offer heavy discounts to push sales.
Avery Shenfeld from CIBC World Markets expects 1.4% growth in durable goods orders. Going by the strong order growth reported by Boeing (BA) for July, one can expect a solid increase in the volatile transportation orders. Nonetheless, orders for automobiles may continue to remain weak, given the waning consumer confidence. The all-important non-defense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, are expected to show weakness, in-line with the recent trend. Accordingly, business capital spending is unlikely to offer much support to GDP growth in the near term.
Apart from these reports, the markets may also focus on the Conference Board's leading indicator index for July, the customary weekly jobless claims data for the week ended August 18th and the weekly crude oil inventory report.
Wachovia Securities expects the leading index to show a significant increase in July due to positive contribution from initial claims, consumer confidence, money supply and supplier deliveries.
Monday
The Conference Board is due to release the leading index for July at 10 AM ET on Monday. The index is expected to show a 0.3% increase for the month.
In June, the leading index fell 0.3% in June, reversing the gain of May. The Conference Board noted that the index was lower in four out of the past six months. The largest negative contributions in the month were from housing permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance and consumer expectations. However, the leading and lagging indexes rose 0.2% and 0.5% in June.
Tuesday
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker is scheduled to speak about the U.S. economic outlook in Charlotte, North Carolina at 12:30 PM ET on Tuesday.
Wednesday
The Energy Department's weekly Crude Oil Inventory report is scheduled to be released at 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday.
Crude oil stocks fell 5.2 million barrels in the week ended August 10th to 335.2 million barrels. Notwithstanding the decline, inventories remain above the upper end of the average range for this time of the year. Gasoline stocks declined 1.1 million barrels, and they remain below the lower end of the average range. Meanwhile, distillate inventories edged up 0.2 million barrels and are in the middle of the average range for this time of the year.
The average refinery capacity utilization over the last four weeks was 92.1% compared to 91.9% in the previous week and 92.7% in the year-ago period.
The price of WTI grade crude oil was $71.49 a barrel as of August 10th, down 5.2% from $75.41 a barrel last week and about 3.9% lower than in the year-ago period. The average nationwide price of regular grade gasoline was $2.771 a gallon as of August 13th compared to $2.838 as of August 6th, 2007 and $3 as of August 14th, 2006.
Thursday
The weekly jobless claims for the week ended August 17th are scheduled to be released at 8:30 AM ET on Thursday.
Jobless claims increased 6,000 in the week ended August 11th to 322,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 316,000. Economists expected jobless claims to have eased to 315,000.
The less volatile four-week moving average increased 4,750 to 312,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 307,750. Continuing claims for the week ended August 4th increased to 2.548 million from the preceding week's revised level of 2.547 million.
Friday
The Durable Goods Orders Report, which sheds light on the new orders placed for big-ticket items that last for more than 3 years, is expected to be released at 8:30 AM ET on Friday. Economists expect the report to reveal 1% growth in durable goods orders for July.
Last month, new orders for manufactured durable goods rose 1.3% following a 2.4% decline in May. The bulk of the increase was due to a 7.1% increase in new orders for transportation equipment. Shipment of durable goods fell 1.2%, while unfilled orders rose 1.4%. Inventories edged up merely 0.1%.
Data on New Home Sales, which measures the number of newly constructed homes with committed sale during the month, is scheduled for release at 10 AM ET on Friday. Economists forecast new home sales of 830,000 units for July.
In June, new home sales slid 6.6% to 834,000 from 893,000 in May. Annually, new home sales declined 22.3%. The median sales price of new homes was $237,900, down 2.2% from $243,200 in the year-ago period. New home inventories at the end of June represented a supply of 7.8 months compared to 7.4 months in May and 6.4 months in June 2006.
Friday, August 17, 2007
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
My Other Record In Other Broker Platform..
Just.Click.Text.Below..
Beat.Me.If.You.Can
SOME PEOPLE NEVER LEARN
1.Month.after.this..My.Blog.will.be.turn.off...:)
No.Need.To.Share.Anymore...
~~Just.Wanna.Be.Alone~~
I Hate some peoples who just have a big Mouth and said something stupid..:)
Me just want to share for my clients and my friends..
Thanks For You All Peoples Who's being good to me..
Count Down to September 19th..34 days left..:)
from today count down from 34 to 0..
And After September, 19th.. This Blog will be deactivated
Beat.Me.If.You.Can
SOME PEOPLE NEVER LEARN
1.Month.after.this..My.Blog.will.be.turn.off...:)
No.Need.To.Share.Anymore...
~~Just.Wanna.Be.Alone~~
I Hate some peoples who just have a big Mouth and said something stupid..:)
Me just want to share for my clients and my friends..
Thanks For You All Peoples Who's being good to me..
Count Down to September 19th..34 days left..:)
from today count down from 34 to 0..
And After September, 19th.. This Blog will be deactivated
Will.Be.The.Nice.One...!
Long.Journey.Will.Be.The.Nice.One...!!!
Please.take.a.look.what.i.post.last.week...
To.Be.Continued....
Please.take.a.look.what.i.post.last.week...
To.Be.Continued....
Just.A.Lil.Advice...
This.is.just.a.little.advice.for.this.week...
Trust.Your.Self.then...
Trust.Your.Self.then...
Can.you.see.my.last.post?
Just.Closed.with.a.100.pips.from.2.0083..
Told.ya.for.being.prepare.between.my.red.and.my.green.thin.line..
Congratulation...:)
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Monday, August 13, 2007
Expert.Advsior...!!
REMEMBER.GUYS.....
If.Some.News.With.High.Volatil.(High.Impact)
Pleaseee..!!.Turn.Off.Your.EA
1.Hour.before.News...
and.Turn.On.it.again.1.Hours.After.News
Play.safe..
If.Some.News.With.High.Volatil.(High.Impact)
Pleaseee..!!.Turn.Off.Your.EA
1.Hour.before.News...
and.Turn.On.it.again.1.Hours.After.News
Play.safe..
Sunday, August 12, 2007
European Stocks Fall for a Fourth Week; HBOS, Antofagasta Drop
By Alexis Xydias
Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks declined for a fourth week, extending a global rout that has wiped out about $2.7 trillion in market value, on concern that a widening credit crunch may hurt economic growth and erode earnings.
HBOS Plc, the U.K.'s largest mortgage provider, and Dutch lender ABN Amro Holding NV led the decline. Antofagasta Plc and Boliden AB paced mining shares lower as metal prices tumbled.
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index dropped 2.5 percent to 362.77, a five-month low. The measure has fallen 9.4 percent since reaching a 6 1/2-year high on June 1. The Stoxx 50 sank 2.4 percent, while the Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the euro region, lost 1.6 percent.
Shares in banks, brokerages and money managers tumbled worldwide amid signs that the debacle in the U.S. mortgage market is spreading. BNP Paribas SA, France's biggest bank, halted withdrawals from funds and the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan pumped cash into the banking system, aiming to stem a collapse in credit markets.
``It's a bit of a can of worms that has been opened,'' said Toby Nangle, who helps manage $37 billion in assets at Baring Asset Management in London. ``We are not quite sure where it will end. We might see a major economic impact.''
National benchmarks fell in all 18 western European benchmarks. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 dropped 3 percent, France's CAC 40 sank 2.7 percent and Germany's DAX decreased 1.2 percent.
``Everyone is very afraid,'' said Jacques Porta, who helps manage $180 million at Ofivalmo Patrimoine in Paris. ``There's lack of confidence on the financial sector. I am selling banks.''
HBOS, Man Group
HBOS slid 8.4 percent to 873 pence. Man Group Plc, the world's largest publicly traded hedge fund company, tumbled 12 percent to 479.25 pence. Dexia SA, the owner of U.S. bond insurer Financial Security Assurance Inc., fell 4 percent to 19.16 euros.
Deutsche Bank AG dropped 3.3 percent to 95.19 euros. Germany's biggest bank said the assets in one of its investment funds have fallen by 30 percent since the end of July as subprime mortgage losses roiled credit markets.
The European Central Bank loaned 156 billion euros ($213 billion). The Fed added $38 billion in temporary reserves and the Bank of Japan added 1 trillion yen ($8.5 billion) to the financial system.
BNP, ABN Amro
BNP Paribas dropped 1.9 percent to 78.97 euros. France's biggest bank said it halted withdrawals from three investment funds because it couldn't ``fairly'' value their holdings after subprime mortgage losses rattled debt markets.
ABN Amro, the target in the world's biggest banking takeover, lost 3.4 percent to 33.85 euros on speculation bids by Barclays Plc or a group led by Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc may falter.
Recent market turmoil ``does jeopardize the ABN Amro deal,'' said Mike Trippitt, a London-based analyst at Oriel Securities Ltd. who has a ``buy'' rating on Barclays and Royal Bank stock. ``If you believe the market, the current share prices are telling you the deal isn't going to happen.''
Jochem van de Laarschot, a spokesman for Amsterdam-based ABN Amro, said there are ``no new developments in the offer process.'' Royal Bank Chairman Tom McKillop said the market turmoil won't derail the deal.
Antofagasta, the owner of three copper mines in Chile, slid 9.9 percent to 620 pence this week. Boliden, Scandinavia's sole copper producer, fell 7.1 percent to 139.75 kronor.
Copper prices in London dropped 3 percent in the week. Nickel plummeted 9 percent. Zinc and aluminum also fell.
Petroplus, Nokian Renkaat
Petroplus Holdings AG plunged 15 percent to 104.3 Swiss francs even after the Swiss refiner posted a second-quarter profit. Earnings were limited by maintenance work at the Cressier refinery and the BRC refinery, the company said.
Nokian Renkaat Oyj jumped 5.8 percent to 24.33 euros. The biggest Nordic tiremaker said that second-quarter profit rose 69 percent, beating analyst estimates, after it raised prices.
Rentokil Initial Plc increased 7.5 percent to 165 pence. Merrill Lynch & Co. raised its recommendation on the world's biggest pest-control company to ``buy'' from ``neutral.''
``After 3 1/2 years of declining profits, we believe Rentokil's profits momentum is at an inflection point,'' a team of analysts led by Andrew Ripper said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Alexis Xydias in London at axydias@bloomberg.net
Saturday, August 11, 2007
My.Forecast.GU.Next.Week
This.is.my.lil.prediction..
If.I.Got.Wrong.Please.Somebody.Remind.Me..!!
Good.Luck
Friday, August 10, 2007
EA~10.08.07
2007.August.10th
This's.The.End.Of.EA.Journal..
I'll.Post.EA.Journal.Again.when.sumone.request.it...:)
Good.Luck
This's.The.End.Of.EA.Journal..
I'll.Post.EA.Journal.Again.when.sumone.request.it...:)
Good.Luck
Thursday, August 09, 2007
Wednesday, August 08, 2007
Saturday, August 04, 2007
The Rules of Nebula Shoot The Sheriff Trading System..
Nebula Shoot The Sheriff Trading System Including Below:
Rule Of Entry Signal
- Entry Signal When Nebu Trend Signal Appear And Compare With Area Of FX~Sniper Indicator
- Follow The Trend With Nebu Break Out Signal
- Exit Signal Using WcciPattern Indicator
- Remember That All Indicator Working Best On TF H4 Chart.
Entry Signal See The Picture Below
Rule Of Entry Signal
When Nebu Trend Signal Appear With Blue Star (Buy Signal) And Red Star (Sell Signal), You Can Entry To The Market..
All You Need Just Watch The FX~Sniper Below..
- When The Red Line of FX~Sniper Already Cross The Blue Line You Can Follow The Nebu Trend Signal (Sell Signal)
- When The Blue Line of FX~Sniper Already Cross The Red Line You Can Follow The Nebu Trend Signal (Buy Signal)
- Remember.. When The Nebu Trend Signal Appear in Over Bough or Over Sold Area The Result Is More Better.
See The Picture Below
Follow The Trend Using Break Out Signal
When Break Out Signal Come Out Just Prepare For More Pips Use Trailing Stop 15+ For Short Term And Use TS 35up For More Mid/Long Term Trade.
See The Picture Below
Exit Signal
Exit Signal Using Wcci (Woodie CCI) Pattern
Complete.Picture.See.Below
- Be.Discipline.With.Stop.Loss...
- Nobody.know.the.future.all.we.can.do.just.make.some.prediction
- Do.Not.Use.More.Than.15%.Your.Equity
Good.Luck.
Nebula.Arung.Langi
Friday, August 03, 2007
Outlook.Hari.Ini..!!
What will happen at the Asia must be concerned of the Asian data..
Semalam terjadi perlawanan yg cukup memberikan arti bagi pasar finansial dan index saham baik FTSE maupun Dow Jones karena apa yg ditunggu oleh pasar mengenai data rate bagi kedua jawara pair tahun ini EUR dan GBP mengalami penekanan yg cukup serius.. Meskipun demikian pada sesi penutupan pasar NY semalam cukup memberikan dukungan penuh atas kembalinya transaksi carry trade antara EUR/JPY dan GBP/JPY. Sehingga memberikan peluang kenaikkan yg cukup signifikan bagi kedua major pairs tersebut pada saat penutupan sesi NY semalam.
USD
Tidak bereaksinya USD semalam dengan seluruh data yg dirilis dimana sebagian besar data-data tersebut yg biasanya mampu menambah kekuatan USD justru membuat USD dalam tekanan yg cukup berarti karena masalah subprime mortgage yang kembali berkembang mengingat di saat yg sama fokus pasar kembali beralih pada rate US yang saat ini dalam proyeksi pemangkasan..
Adanya pertemuan US Senate Banking dengan 3 calon kandidat FED yg akan mengisi posisi subprime mortgage department bagi seluruh negara bagian mengalami kebuntuan..karena para calon kandidat tidak memberikan komentar akan tindakan suku bunga dan inflasi yang terjadi karena pemangakasan FED beberapa bulan silam..
FED watcher Greg Ip juga memberikan pernyataan semalam mengenai keadaan beberapa data yang cukup melemahkan prilaku pasar finansial dan sepertinya FED akan kembali pada masalah semula yaitu Inflasi. Ip juga menyebutkan mengenai kredit yang semakin melebar ditambah kebobrokan dalam kinerja saham merupakan cerminan dari kebijakan yang ada, tetapi akan kembali menjadi titik dasar bagi FED dalam merancang perbaikkan kebijakan ekonomi dan bukannya suatu perubahan fundamental.
Saya rasa FED saat ini harus kembali mewaspadai reaksi dan tindakan pasar tanpa memperlihatkan keinginan dalam memangkas suku bunganya guna menstabilkan perekonomian.
Sesuai dengan statement dari Ip diatas bahwa beberapa data US yang akan dirilis tidak memberikan angin segar, senada dengan outlook semalam bahwa data manufakturinglah yang menopang USD selama ini diproyeksikan akan kembali meningkat..
Justru jika saya diijinkan memberi pendapat, bukan payroll yang akan menjadi fokus utama malam nanti tapi kelanjutan dan keseriusan pemerintah US akan kembali tercermin dalam data average earning dan average work week serta manufacturing payroll yang jika dirilis positif akan kembali melambungkan USD namun jika di rilis negatif maka akan kembali menekan USD dalam titik lemah beberapa tahun terakhir ini..
Data-data tersebut akan dirilis pada pukul 19.30 WIB.
GBP
Kekecewaan kembali melanda kubu GBP semalam setelah pengumuman penahanan terhadap rate di level yg sama pada ertemuan sebelumnya yaitu 5.75% seperti yang telah diproyeksikan oleh para analis..hal inilah yang kembali membuat GBP bergerak tertahan di sesi Asia dan Eropa.
Namun kembali menanjak pada sesi penutupan market NY karena aksi carry trade yang kembali merebak ditengah isu subprime mortgage US dimana para kandidat sepertinya kurang mampu mengendalikan kredit yang terlalu melebar.
Disisi lain yang menjadi penunjang kenaikkan bagi GBP pada sesi NY adalah proyeksi harga rumah yang merupakan salah satu indikator terpenting dalam inflasi akan mengalami penurunan di tengah tahun ini. Halifax UK house price menunjukkan angka yg cukup signifikan untuk periode Juli. Hal ini hampir serupa dengan apa yang dilaporkan oleh Nationwide (9.9% y/y utk Juli dari 11.1% pada Juni) dan memberikan pandangan bahwa 25bps kenaikkan lalu yang telah dilakukan oleh BoE telah memberikan efek yan sangat nyata kepada sektor perumahan. Yang mengindikasikan akan adanya penurunan terhadap inflasi.
Tetapi jika kita melihat data berikutnya, index RICS home sales-to-unsold yang tengah mengalami penurunan pada level 0.39 dari 0.47 high point digabungkan dengan data Halifax house price inflation series/Nationwide rilis data tersebut menunjukkan penurunan inflasi harga rumah hingga tengah tahun ini.
Akan menjadi semakin sederhana karena suku bunga fixed yang diberikan kepada pengembang akan berakhir dalam tahun ini. Hal inilah yang kembali akan memaksa mereka (pengembang) menjual rumah dengan harga yang cenderung memberikan pilihan manarik dari beberapa bulan
sebelumnya. Tetapi, disisi lain berlawanan dengan adanya ketakutan perubahan, penurunan perlahan yang terjadi pada housing market sangat dilemma karena akan kembali memberikan goncangan bagi pasar tenaga kerja dan berputar kembali dalam ketidakseimbangan antara demand/supply.
Data yang akan dirilis sore (15.30 WIB) nanti adalah CIPS PMI yang diproyeksikan oleh pasar kembali melemah..
Patut diwaspadai kinerja cross-rate EUR/GBP yg kembali menyemarakkan aksi carry trade setelah absent dari kegiatan yg membingungkan pasar karena masalah adanya isu kredit macet dan krisis yang dihadapi oleh Perbankan Jerman ternyata tidak terjadi pada salah satu perusahan peminjam terbesar IKB (IKBG.DE).
Hal tersebutlah yang kembali mengajak EUR kembali menanjak sesaat setelah pernyataan resmi dari Presiden Bundes Bank Alex Weber semalam.
Semoga bermanfaat en sukses selalu
Semalam terjadi perlawanan yg cukup memberikan arti bagi pasar finansial dan index saham baik FTSE maupun Dow Jones karena apa yg ditunggu oleh pasar mengenai data rate bagi kedua jawara pair tahun ini EUR dan GBP mengalami penekanan yg cukup serius.. Meskipun demikian pada sesi penutupan pasar NY semalam cukup memberikan dukungan penuh atas kembalinya transaksi carry trade antara EUR/JPY dan GBP/JPY. Sehingga memberikan peluang kenaikkan yg cukup signifikan bagi kedua major pairs tersebut pada saat penutupan sesi NY semalam.
USD
Tidak bereaksinya USD semalam dengan seluruh data yg dirilis dimana sebagian besar data-data tersebut yg biasanya mampu menambah kekuatan USD justru membuat USD dalam tekanan yg cukup berarti karena masalah subprime mortgage yang kembali berkembang mengingat di saat yg sama fokus pasar kembali beralih pada rate US yang saat ini dalam proyeksi pemangkasan..
Adanya pertemuan US Senate Banking dengan 3 calon kandidat FED yg akan mengisi posisi subprime mortgage department bagi seluruh negara bagian mengalami kebuntuan..karena para calon kandidat tidak memberikan komentar akan tindakan suku bunga dan inflasi yang terjadi karena pemangakasan FED beberapa bulan silam..
FED watcher Greg Ip juga memberikan pernyataan semalam mengenai keadaan beberapa data yang cukup melemahkan prilaku pasar finansial dan sepertinya FED akan kembali pada masalah semula yaitu Inflasi. Ip juga menyebutkan mengenai kredit yang semakin melebar ditambah kebobrokan dalam kinerja saham merupakan cerminan dari kebijakan yang ada, tetapi akan kembali menjadi titik dasar bagi FED dalam merancang perbaikkan kebijakan ekonomi dan bukannya suatu perubahan fundamental.
Saya rasa FED saat ini harus kembali mewaspadai reaksi dan tindakan pasar tanpa memperlihatkan keinginan dalam memangkas suku bunganya guna menstabilkan perekonomian.
Sesuai dengan statement dari Ip diatas bahwa beberapa data US yang akan dirilis tidak memberikan angin segar, senada dengan outlook semalam bahwa data manufakturinglah yang menopang USD selama ini diproyeksikan akan kembali meningkat..
Justru jika saya diijinkan memberi pendapat, bukan payroll yang akan menjadi fokus utama malam nanti tapi kelanjutan dan keseriusan pemerintah US akan kembali tercermin dalam data average earning dan average work week serta manufacturing payroll yang jika dirilis positif akan kembali melambungkan USD namun jika di rilis negatif maka akan kembali menekan USD dalam titik lemah beberapa tahun terakhir ini..
Data-data tersebut akan dirilis pada pukul 19.30 WIB.
GBP
Kekecewaan kembali melanda kubu GBP semalam setelah pengumuman penahanan terhadap rate di level yg sama pada ertemuan sebelumnya yaitu 5.75% seperti yang telah diproyeksikan oleh para analis..hal inilah yang kembali membuat GBP bergerak tertahan di sesi Asia dan Eropa.
Namun kembali menanjak pada sesi penutupan market NY karena aksi carry trade yang kembali merebak ditengah isu subprime mortgage US dimana para kandidat sepertinya kurang mampu mengendalikan kredit yang terlalu melebar.
Disisi lain yang menjadi penunjang kenaikkan bagi GBP pada sesi NY adalah proyeksi harga rumah yang merupakan salah satu indikator terpenting dalam inflasi akan mengalami penurunan di tengah tahun ini. Halifax UK house price menunjukkan angka yg cukup signifikan untuk periode Juli. Hal ini hampir serupa dengan apa yang dilaporkan oleh Nationwide (9.9% y/y utk Juli dari 11.1% pada Juni) dan memberikan pandangan bahwa 25bps kenaikkan lalu yang telah dilakukan oleh BoE telah memberikan efek yan sangat nyata kepada sektor perumahan. Yang mengindikasikan akan adanya penurunan terhadap inflasi.
Tetapi jika kita melihat data berikutnya, index RICS home sales-to-unsold yang tengah mengalami penurunan pada level 0.39 dari 0.47 high point digabungkan dengan data Halifax house price inflation series/Nationwide rilis data tersebut menunjukkan penurunan inflasi harga rumah hingga tengah tahun ini.
Akan menjadi semakin sederhana karena suku bunga fixed yang diberikan kepada pengembang akan berakhir dalam tahun ini. Hal inilah yang kembali akan memaksa mereka (pengembang) menjual rumah dengan harga yang cenderung memberikan pilihan manarik dari beberapa bulan
sebelumnya. Tetapi, disisi lain berlawanan dengan adanya ketakutan perubahan, penurunan perlahan yang terjadi pada housing market sangat dilemma karena akan kembali memberikan goncangan bagi pasar tenaga kerja dan berputar kembali dalam ketidakseimbangan antara demand/supply.
Data yang akan dirilis sore (15.30 WIB) nanti adalah CIPS PMI yang diproyeksikan oleh pasar kembali melemah..
Patut diwaspadai kinerja cross-rate EUR/GBP yg kembali menyemarakkan aksi carry trade setelah absent dari kegiatan yg membingungkan pasar karena masalah adanya isu kredit macet dan krisis yang dihadapi oleh Perbankan Jerman ternyata tidak terjadi pada salah satu perusahan peminjam terbesar IKB (IKBG.DE).
Hal tersebutlah yang kembali mengajak EUR kembali menanjak sesaat setelah pernyataan resmi dari Presiden Bundes Bank Alex Weber semalam.
Semoga bermanfaat en sukses selalu
Bank of England Leaves Interest Rate at Six-Year High (Update4)
By Jennifer Ryan
Aug. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England left its benchmark interest rate at a six-year high today as policy makers assess whether five quarter-point increases in the past year are enough to quell inflation.
The Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Mervyn King, left the Bank Rate at 5.75 percent, the highest since April 2001, the central bank said today in London. The decision was predicted by all 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The nine policy makers said at July's meeting, when they voted for an increase, that they planned to wait for new inflation and growth forecasts this month before deciding whether further moves are needed. Inflation has held above the bank's 2 percent target for a 14th month, while stock prices have tumbled as the U.S. subprime crisis spread to markets in Europe and Asia.
``The bank is going to want to give previous increases a chance to have an effect,'' said Dominic White, an economist at ABN Amro Holding NV in London who used to work at the U.K. Treasury. ``The likelihood is that the economy will hold up and that inflation may be more of a problem. Rates will probably go to 6 percent.''
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index posted its biggest monthly decline in three years in July, and the risk of owning corporate bonds rose in Europe by the most in at least three years yesterday as the fallout from subprime mortgage losses spread. In the U.K., the benchmark FTSE 100 index has fallen 5.8 percent as of yesterday's close since the bank's last decision July 5.
The FTSE 100 rebounded today, rising as much as 0.8 percent to trade at 6301.80. It reached a four-month low of 6186.20 on July 30.
Investor Speculation
The credit-market rout prompted investors to scale back speculation about further rate increases. The implied rate on the December interest-rate futures contract was 6.19 percent as of 3:39 p.m. in London, down from a peak close of 6.34 percent on July 17. The contract settles to the three-month London interbank offered rate for the pound, which averaged about 15 basis points more than the central bank benchmark for the past decade.
The U.K. benchmark rate is the highest among the Group of Seven countries. It compares with 5.25 percent in the U.S., 4.5 percent in Canada and 0.5 percent in Japan.
ECB Decision
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled that the bank may raise borrowing costs next month for the 13 euro countries after keeping its rate at 4 percent today in Frankfurt. Trichet pledged ``strong vigilance'' in fighting inflation.
King has led the push for higher interest rates in the U.K., securing an increase last month in a 6-3 vote after he was overruled in June. The majority at the July decision argued that the rate is now ``probably only just on the restrictive side.''
Whether borrowing costs rise again may depend on the Bank of England's quarterly assessment of growth and inflation prospects, due to be published Aug. 8. In May, the bank forecast inflation would return to the 2 percent target by the end of the year, based on investor expectations of higher interest rates.
The economy has shown few signs of cooling. Inflation was 2.4 percent in July after reaching a decade high of 3.1 percent in March. Economic growth accelerated to 0.8 percent in the second quarter from 0.7 percent in the previous three months. Both measures were faster than economists forecast.
Inflation Pressures
The pace of economic growth has encouraged companies to charge their customers more, adding to inflation pressures. Travis Perkins Plc, which sells building supplies, said yesterday that it increased first-half sales after raising prices. An index of factory-gate inflation reached a record in July.
``The economy's not slowing down as desired and that causes a risk for inflation,'' said Kenneth Broux, economist at Lloyds TSB Bank Plc in London. ``We're looking for no further change in rates, but there's a risk they could increase again.''
Policy makers arguing against higher rates last month cited the risk that the economy may slow ``quite sharply'' as consumers with record debts adjust to previous increases in borrowing costs.
There are conflicting signals as to whether a housing boom, which was encouraging consumers to keep spending, has started to slow. HBOS Plc, the U.K.'s biggest mortgage lender, said today that house prices rose at the fastest pace in three months in July. Other reports from Nationwide Building Society and Hometrack Ltd. signal prices barely increased. Retail sales rose in June by 0.2 percent, half the pace of the previous month.
Record Rainfall
Record rainfall and the worst floods in 60 years may also have hampered spending, while also threatening to raise food prices because of crop damage. William Morrison Supermarkets Plc, the fourth-largest U.K. food retailer, said July 19 revenue growth slowed in the previous two months as the rain deterred shoppers.
``There's enough interest-rate restriction in the pipeline to slow growth sufficiently to keep inflation in check,'' said Nick Bate, economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in London who used to work at the Treasury. ``There are already signs of slowing in the consumer sector.'' He says rates have peaked.
Economists are split on the outlook for interest rates. Twenty-six out of 48 surveyed by Bloomberg News predict a quarter- point increase to 6 percent by November. The rest forecast no change.
``Growth figures are still fairly strong, and inflation hasn't been falling quite as fast as the Bank of England expected,'' said Ross Walker, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. ``For the moment, we are still on course for another rise in interest rates.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Jennifer Ryan in London at Jryan13@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 2, 2007 11:01 EDTThursday, August 02, 2007
Outlook malam ini
Big.Thankss!!!
USD
Tidak bereaksinya USD terhadap data tenaga kerja yg dirilis namun disisi lain indeks dow jones berhasil meraup keuntungan. Para ekonom mengatakan tidak adanya perubahan yg berarti pada data factory order sementara itu data terbaru mengenai ISM yang dilaporkan untuk bulan
Juli lalu memberikan gambaran mengenai aktivitas manufaktur dan penambahan order yang kembali berlanjut menguat pada quarter ke-3.
Mendukung data Factory Inventories serta revisi positif dari capital goods shipments dan data construction spending yang akan kembali mencoba berlanjut menguat pada kuartal ke 2 pertumbhuhan Gdp sebesar 3.6%
Sementara ketidakberlakuan data US dari tenaga kerja disebabkan karena US senate Banking kembali mendengarkan 3 org nominasi gubernur FED (negara bagian) selanjutnya..ada 3 org yg dinominasikan untuk menggantikan Gov Kroszner yaitu Gov K sendiri semudian Larry Klane dan Elizabeth Duke.
GU
GU dibuka pada sesi eropa di level 2.0310 GU sedang melakukan rebound hingga penutupan pasar NY disaat yg hampir bersamaan dengan rally pembukaan wall street di sesi Asia di level 2.0320 dan menekan hingga 2.0330 sebelum carry trade yg dilakukan oleh pihak Rusian melalui GJ dan EJ.
GU sempat menyentuh level low pada 2.0281 sebelum rilis data yang berhasil kembali berada pada level 2.0300an pada sesi Asia di siang hari. Dan tetap melanjutkan aksi bertahannya di sesi eropa namun tetap tidak mampu menembus high yg tercipta di sesi Asia. Ditambah dengan hold rate yang dilakukan oleh BoE..
ECB
Sementara dari ECB pun berkelakuan sama spt BoE dgn strong vigilance pada rate 4%nya meskipun pada pertemuan sebelumnya level rate ECB 4% sedang dalam keadaan close monitory..senada dengan pendapat para analis menenai pesan dari pernyataan Jean Claude Trichet bahwa ECB akan kembali menaikkan rate-nya pada pertemuan berikutnya pada tanggal
06 September.
Penekanan yang digunakan pada strong vigilance oleh Trichet mengindikasikan setidaknya ECB akan kembali melanjutkan kenaikan rate-nya dengan asumsi sekali kenaikkan per quarter. Namun diharapkan untuk berhati2 dalam memonitor reaksi pasar finansial.
USD
Tidak bereaksinya USD terhadap data tenaga kerja yg dirilis namun disisi lain indeks dow jones berhasil meraup keuntungan. Para ekonom mengatakan tidak adanya perubahan yg berarti pada data factory order sementara itu data terbaru mengenai ISM yang dilaporkan untuk bulan
Juli lalu memberikan gambaran mengenai aktivitas manufaktur dan penambahan order yang kembali berlanjut menguat pada quarter ke-3.
Mendukung data Factory Inventories serta revisi positif dari capital goods shipments dan data construction spending yang akan kembali mencoba berlanjut menguat pada kuartal ke 2 pertumbhuhan Gdp sebesar 3.6%
Sementara ketidakberlakuan data US dari tenaga kerja disebabkan karena US senate Banking kembali mendengarkan 3 org nominasi gubernur FED (negara bagian) selanjutnya..ada 3 org yg dinominasikan untuk menggantikan Gov Kroszner yaitu Gov K sendiri semudian Larry Klane dan Elizabeth Duke.
GU
GU dibuka pada sesi eropa di level 2.0310 GU sedang melakukan rebound hingga penutupan pasar NY disaat yg hampir bersamaan dengan rally pembukaan wall street di sesi Asia di level 2.0320 dan menekan hingga 2.0330 sebelum carry trade yg dilakukan oleh pihak Rusian melalui GJ dan EJ.
GU sempat menyentuh level low pada 2.0281 sebelum rilis data yang berhasil kembali berada pada level 2.0300an pada sesi Asia di siang hari. Dan tetap melanjutkan aksi bertahannya di sesi eropa namun tetap tidak mampu menembus high yg tercipta di sesi Asia. Ditambah dengan hold rate yang dilakukan oleh BoE..
ECB
Sementara dari ECB pun berkelakuan sama spt BoE dgn strong vigilance pada rate 4%nya meskipun pada pertemuan sebelumnya level rate ECB 4% sedang dalam keadaan close monitory..senada dengan pendapat para analis menenai pesan dari pernyataan Jean Claude Trichet bahwa ECB akan kembali menaikkan rate-nya pada pertemuan berikutnya pada tanggal
06 September.
Penekanan yang digunakan pada strong vigilance oleh Trichet mengindikasikan setidaknya ECB akan kembali melanjutkan kenaikan rate-nya dengan asumsi sekali kenaikkan per quarter. Namun diharapkan untuk berhati2 dalam memonitor reaksi pasar finansial.
Wednesday, August 01, 2007
EA.On.A.Live.Trading.Account..
Some.Peoples.Always.asking.me..
Did.I.Used.My.Own.Expert.Advisor.For.A.Real.Trading.Account?
U.Can.See.The.Picture.Above..
Is.That.Virtual.Account.Or.The.Real.One??
Did.I.Used.My.Own.Expert.Advisor.For.A.Real.Trading.Account?
U.Can.See.The.Picture.Above..
Is.That.Virtual.Account.Or.The.Real.One??
Outlook.Hari.Ini...
Thanks.To.You..
Outlook untuk hari ini masih bermuara pada msalah yg selama hampir 4 bulan mewarnai pasar finansial yaitu subprime mortagage US yang pada sesi awal kemarin mulai mereda hingga kembali membantu penguatan GU hingga ke level 2.0378. Nampaknya pelaku pasar kembali melakukan aksi carry-nya dengan meningkatkan holding pada pair yg ber-yield lebih tinggi dengan mengabaikan rilis optimis data consumer confidence semalam.
Sementara focus pasar akan proyeksi kenaikan rate GU dan EU kembali merosot, namun isu masalah subprime mortgage semalam kembali berkembang menjelang penutupan sesi NY yang kembali menekan Dow Jones hingga 100pips lebih serta memberikan kepastian ketidakmampuan GU dalam mensupport high sebelumnya. Perusahaan American Home Mortgage Investment semalam mengatakan adanya kemungkinan akan melikuidasi asetnya akibat dari dampak kredit macet pada subprime mortage yang kemudian menekan saham perusahaan tersebut hingga 90%.
Mengenai bahasan untuk pertemuan regular bank central baik di EU dan GU akan mampu memberikan arahan yg lebih jelas lagi akan kenaikkan dan penahanan rate di masing-masing..Perlu diwaspadai aksi carry trade dan taking profit yang akan kembali terjadi hari ini namun dengan pergerakan yg akan terbatas hingga rilis kepastian dari masing2 bank..
Sementara rilis data open trade akan kembali dikeluarkan pada hari jumat esok oleh pemerintah US yg akan kembali memastikan arah laju masing2 pair..
Outlook...
Monday Flash
Di sesi senin kemarin tekanan GU berlanjut terbatas hanya pada 2.0185 dari previous lownya 2.0229 akibat masih berkembangnya sentiment negatif USD dan isu subprime mortgage US belakangan ini. Namun penguatan indeks saham Eropa di sesi awal kemarin sempat mendorong rebound GU ke level 2.0289, mengabaikan lemahnya data perumahan Inggris dari survey konsultan property local. Hometrack, yang melaporkan ekspansi harga perumahan Inggris Juli ini adalah sebesar 5.9%, dibandingkan Juni sebelumnya 6.4%. Seharusnya hal ini memperkuat pandangan pasar bahwa kinerja pasar perumahan Inggris tengah terkoreksi.
Namun sejak menyentuh level tertingginya 2.0655(24/Jul), GU menalami koreksi yang pertama-tama dipicu oleh sebatas aksi taking-profit namun berkembang pada saat terjadinya aksi carry-trade yang menekan saham-saham global mendorong rebound UJ dan UCF terhadap mata uang utama dunia yg ber-yield lebih tinggi. Kembali hal ini bermuara pada lemahnya rilis indikator US, yakni new-home sales dan existing home sales diperiode Juni serta adanya alaporan kerugian dari sejumlah perusahaan home builder US yang turut membantu memeberikan tekanan negatif ke Dow Jones yang ditandai dengan penurunan hingga 300 poin di sesi kamis lalu (26/Jul). Concern teradap subprime mortgage yang belum kunjung berakhir dilingkungan pasar financial global menimbulkan risk-aversion para pelaku pasar sehingga memicu likuidasi carry trade yang men-support mata uang bersuku bunga rendah dan menekan mata uang bersuku bunga tinggi. Selain itu tekanan GU di pertengahan hingga akhir pekan kemarin juga dipicu oleh turunnya data perumahan Inggris periode Juli dari lembaga Nationwide yang disinyalir seagai dampak dari kenaikkan suku bunga Inggris hingga 5 kali sejak Agustus 2006. Senin sebelumnya lembaga property Inggris Rightmove juga melapirkan turunnya inflasi harga perumahan di Ingris dan Wales pada periode Juli. Kondisi ini menggambarkan bahwa lankah kenaikkan suku bungan BoE mulai memberikan dampak pada sektor perumahan. Proyeksi kenaikan suku bunga Ingris berangsur surut di pasar, dimana pihak BoE rabu lalu wakil Gubernurnya,John Gieve juga mengatakan bahwa langkah kenaikan suku bunga gradual adalah yang lebih baik untuk inggris tahun ini dengan target proyeksi kenaikan suku bunga Inggris di pasar hingga akhir tahun 2007 ini adalah 6%.
Sementara itu likuidasi dari aksi carry trade juga menyebabkan tekanan pada mata uang bersuku bunga tini seperti GU. Risk Averaging global dari concern pasar perumahan AS semalam kembali berkembang yang menjadi faktor utama pergerakan pasaar saat itu. Akibanya bisa ditebak UJ dan UCF yan menjadi subyek dari carry trade memeperoleh support secara global. Dikuranginya asset-aset mata uang dengan suku bunga tingi, seperti GU juga menghambat penguatan tajam GU dan kemudian menyebabkan koreksi tajamnya semalam.
Outook for today
Concern terhadap permasalahan subprime mortgage US saat ini sudah memberikan kekhawatiran tersendiri pada pasar finansila di sector kredit global.sementara perkembangan kinerja ekonomi US masih akan dimonitor oleh pasar untuk melihat apakah dampak subprime mortgage yang menular ada sektor kredit global akan memeberikan dampak pada perekonomian secara menyeluruh.
Di pekan ini data ekonomi akan dirilis semarak seperti data tenaga kerja US serta data manufaktur lobal termasuk US didalamnya akan menjadi fokur perhatian pasar meskipun data-data tersebut akan mendapat tempat di bangku belakang di tengah concern pasar yang terpusat ada isu subprime mortgage. Perlu diwaspadai rilis data NFP US, indeks Manufakturing ISM serta pertemuan regular BoE dan ECB (02/agus) nanti yang mampu merubah concern pasar terhadap US.
Jika data consumer confidence, payroll dan ISM dirilis optimis maka akan memperkuat pandangan upbeat dari the FED terhadap kinerja ekonomi US yang mungkin kan sanggup meredam proyeksi pemangkasan suku bunga US yang masih berkembang di pasar saat ini,, namun isu subprime mortgage masih akan berpotensi berkembangg pecan ini dari rilis data pending homesales (02/Agus).
Dari Inggris dan Eropa akan dirilis Indeks Manufaktur PMI masing-masing. Keduanya juga akan diperhatikan setelah data-data ekonomi masing-masing mengalami tekanan belakangan ini. Data indeks bisnis IFO Jerman dan indeks business confidence Belgia belakangan dirilis pesimis. Senada dengan data-data perumahan Inggris yang pekan lalu juga mengalami penurunan. Di sesi berikutnya juga akan dinantikan pertemuan regular ECB dimana kali ini tidak disertai dengan press conference dari residennya Jean Claude Trichet.
Sementara proyeksi yang sedang berkembang saat ini adalah ECB akan kembali menaikkan rate-nya ke level 4,75% pada September tahun ini, sementara BoE diproyeksikan masih akan melanjutkan satu kali kenaikkan rate-nya di level 6.00% hingga akhir tahun ini.
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