Sunday, September 30, 2007

In 4 hr chart, GU is still uptrend but GU is near the resistance 2.0461. If GU breaks the resistance 2.0461, GU will be 2.0537, 2.0627.
IF GU moves below three red lines 2.0385, 2.0352, 2.0271, GU will be 2.0125. If GU breaks 2.0125, GU will be 2.000.

In weekly chart, GU is still uptrend. If GU breaks three yellow uptrend line, GU will reverse to downtrend.

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

sep 26 mo u t eki

In daily chart, cable hasn't broken the uptrend line (yellow diagonal lines). Plus from the fo rexfa ctory source, cable forms the triangle chart pattern (or buyers and sellers fight each other). If you want to be really safe, just wait until cable breaks either red/blue line (resistance) or magenta line (support).

In 4 hr chart, if cable breaks the resistances (red line and 2.0208 blue line), the target may be 2.0314. If cable breaks the support (yellow line and 2.0091 blue line, the 1st target may be 1.9988, the 2nd target 1.9910

In hourly chart, the resistances (two diagonal red lines 2.0182 - 2.0186), the next resistances three horizontal red lines 2.0197, 2.0208, 2.0227. The support (two diagonal yellow lines 2.0122 - 2.0111), the next support three horizonal yellow lines 2.0083, 2.0073, 2.0061.

Sunday, September 23, 2007

mo u tek i system

2.0346 target long if cable can go through the two resistances (horizontal line 2.0213 or 1st target, 2.0232 or 2nd target)
The yellow lines are supports.
If break the upper green line 2.0040 , cable may go to the 1st target 1.9960, 2nd target 1.9870, maximum target bottom green line 1.9800.

Mo u tek i has brought the Tho m as DeM ark system into the for ex fact ory but there are some differents or modifications between Mo u tek i system and Th o mas DeM a rk.

Monday, September 17, 2007

Big.Rest..-2


Never.Expected.that.GU.will.give.me.300.and.more

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Don't Take This For Sure Road to Disaster

A friend e-mailed me not so long ago....since it discussed a very interesting point, i chose to post it to this blog. Hope this post can makes us have another point of view. Here's the attachment:


Picking tops and bottoms has gained huge popularity over the past 30 years. I recently received an advertisement that proclaimed 100% accuracy in picking tops and bottoms (pivot points) in the S&P 500, down to the minute. I could not hit the order button fast enough. This is what I have been searching for ever since my trading first began 21 years ago. My heart was pounding, my palms were sweating and my dog was barking. I was about to cash in on the secret of all trading secrets!

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

Actually, I would have hit the order button just for the pure entertainment value, but it was $5k. So I emailed him. What did I email him? "Are you trading it yourself"? Never got a reply.

Don't get me wrong, there is nothing wrong with trading systems that attempt to pick tops and bottoms using technical analysis. The problem is usually the trader implementing the strategy. More times than not, they have failed to properly prepare themselves for the risks involved and the realistic expectations of performance. Claiming 100% accuracy to the minute certainly doesn't help encourage the need for such preparation.

However, I did not want to spend this email on picking tops and bottoms as a strategy. I want to take a few minutes to reveal to you a very disastrous practice common to many traders who do not even realize they are doing it. It is one thing to pick tops and bottoms using a technical analysis strategy of some sort... it is an entirely different thing to pick tops and bottoms because you are in a position and are hoping that it won't go any higher, or lower.

I was recently talking with a trader who made the statement "Wheat can't go any higher". That was when it was below 800 just a few short days ago. Uh oh. I knew immediately this trader had a position on that would get nasty if wheat did go above 800. This trader was picking a top in a market, not because it was part of some well thought out, back tested strategy, but because he was biased for the top to come in at 800. It was 100%, pure, unadulterated bias. He was relegating his success to blind hope.

The word "can't" is a very strong word. When this word pops up because someone is in a position that he has not prepared to move beyond a certain point, not only can the market move beyond that certain level, it almost assuredly will. Even if it doesn't the first few times it happens, the trader then gets bold about what he is doing and starts using that nasty word on a frequent basis... it is only a matter of time before this road leads to ultimate disaster.

It is hard enough to prepare for the risks of picking tops and bottoms in markets using careful analysis. Picking tops and bottoms because of 100% pure, unadulterated biases is disaster in the making.

Hope You Enjoy this Post. To Ryan Jones, Thx for the e-mail, and many more that u've sent 2 me before. It really changed my point of view. Good Luck Everybody...

Me.Short.GU..-6

SL.-35

Monday, September 10, 2007

Pound Shows Weekly Fall Against Euro on View Rates Have Peaked , -9

By Anchalee Worrachate

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The pound fell against the euro this week on speculation U.K. interest rates have peaked while the European Central Bank will increase them further this year, eroding the British currency's yield advantage.

The Bank of England and the ECB kept their benchmark rates on hold on Sept. 6 as they assess the effect on their economies of losses linked to U.S. subprime mortgages. While the BOE said inflation ``may remain around, or little below'' its target, the ECB noted price risks ``lie on the upside.''

``We believe the U.K. bank rate has now reached its peak,'' said Richard Dingwall-Smith, chief economist at Scottish Widows Investment Partnership in Edinburgh. ``The risk the bank may push rates to 6 percent or beyond has receded in light of the ongoing global turmoil in financial markets.''

The U.K. central bank raised its benchmark rate to a six- year high of 5.75 percent in July and the ECB increased its rate to 4 percent in June.

The pound traded at 67.79 pence per euro late yesterday in London, from 67.65 pence on Sept. 5.

The U.K. currency also fell against the yen as Asian stock declines and concern over the credit-market crisis prompted investors to cut higher-risk currency holdings funded by loans in Japan.

The pound was at 231.30 yen late yesterday, compared with 233.51 on Sept. 6. The U.K. currency had its biggest decline in three months against the yen in August as concern over the financial-market rout forced investors to reverse so-called carry trades.

The Nikkei 225 Average fell 0.9 percent yesterday and 2.7 percent this week. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia- Pacific Index of regional shares declined 0.3 percent.

U.S. Payrolls

The pound rose to the highest in a month against the dollar after a government report showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly lost jobs last month for the first time in four years.

The U.S. non-farm payrolls data fueled concern the credit- market turmoil is spilling over into the broader economy.

The pound traded at $2.0295, from $2.0237 on Sept. 6. The currency has gained for three weeks against the dollar.

The three-month rate banks charge each other for pounds rose to the highest since 1998, suggesting lenders are still reluctant to offer cash to the money market for fear losses linked to U.S. subprime mortgages will hurt their counter-parties' ability to pay back loans.

``Unless we see a clearer picture of what actually is happening with the subprime sector, the problem in the credit market will persist,'' said Marios Maratheftis, a currency strategist at Standard Chartered Bank in London. ``In this environment, people are reluctant to put strong bets on high yielders, including the pound.''

Gilts Gain

In carry trades, investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in one with higher interest rates, earning the spread between the borrowing and lending rate. The risk is that currency market moves erase those profits.

U.K. government bonds had a second weekly gain as investors bet the distress in financial markets will hurt the economy. Yields on 10-year gilts fell to 4.97 percent, from 5.04 percent at the end of last week.

The price of the 4 percent bond maturing in September 2016 rose 0.57 from last week or 5.7 pounds per 1,000-pound face amount ($2,095) to 93.13.

Economists in a Bloomberg News survey expect the 10-year yield to rise to 5.32 percent by the end of this year.

The yield on the December interest-rate futures contract fell 11 basis points to 6.34 percent yesterday. The contract settles to the three-month London interbank offered rate for the pound, which has averaged about 15 basis points more than the BOE's key rate for the past decade.

To contact the reporter on this story: Anchalee Worrachate in London at aworrachate@bloomberg.net

Sunday, September 09, 2007

Friday, September 07, 2007

Thursday, September 06, 2007