Wednesday, August 01, 2007

Outlook.Hari.Ini...

Thanks.To.You..

Outlook untuk hari ini masih bermuara pada msalah yg selama hampir 4 bulan mewarnai pasar finansial yaitu subprime mortagage US yang pada sesi awal kemarin mulai mereda hingga kembali membantu penguatan GU hingga ke level 2.0378. Nampaknya pelaku pasar kembali melakukan aksi carry-nya dengan meningkatkan holding pada pair yg ber-yield lebih tinggi dengan mengabaikan rilis optimis data consumer confidence semalam.

Sementara focus pasar akan proyeksi kenaikan rate GU dan EU kembali merosot, namun isu masalah subprime mortgage semalam kembali berkembang menjelang penutupan sesi NY yang kembali menekan Dow Jones hingga 100pips lebih serta memberikan kepastian ketidakmampuan GU dalam mensupport high sebelumnya. Perusahaan American Home Mortgage Investment semalam mengatakan adanya kemungkinan akan melikuidasi asetnya akibat dari dampak kredit macet pada subprime mortage yang kemudian menekan saham perusahaan tersebut hingga 90%.

Mengenai bahasan untuk pertemuan regular bank central baik di EU dan GU akan mampu memberikan arahan yg lebih jelas lagi akan kenaikkan dan penahanan rate di masing-masing..Perlu diwaspadai aksi carry trade dan taking profit yang akan kembali terjadi hari ini namun dengan pergerakan yg akan terbatas hingga rilis kepastian dari masing2 bank..

Sementara rilis data open trade akan kembali dikeluarkan pada hari jumat esok oleh pemerintah US yg akan kembali memastikan arah laju masing2 pair..

Smile.And.Wait.The.Big.One!!


Smilee...........!!

Watch.Ma.Red.Thin.Line..


Just.Watch.Ma.Red.Thin.Line..:)

Outlook...

Monday Flash
Di sesi senin kemarin tekanan GU berlanjut terbatas hanya pada 2.0185 dari previous lownya 2.0229 akibat masih berkembangnya sentiment negatif USD dan isu subprime mortgage US belakangan ini. Namun penguatan indeks saham Eropa di sesi awal kemarin sempat mendorong rebound GU ke level 2.0289, mengabaikan lemahnya data perumahan Inggris dari survey konsultan property local. Hometrack, yang melaporkan ekspansi harga perumahan Inggris Juli ini adalah sebesar 5.9%, dibandingkan Juni sebelumnya 6.4%. Seharusnya hal ini memperkuat pandangan pasar bahwa kinerja pasar perumahan Inggris tengah terkoreksi.

Namun sejak menyentuh level tertingginya 2.0655(24/Jul), GU menalami koreksi yang pertama-tama dipicu oleh sebatas aksi taking-profit namun berkembang pada saat terjadinya aksi carry-trade yang menekan saham-saham global mendorong rebound UJ dan UCF terhadap mata uang utama dunia yg ber-yield lebih tinggi. Kembali hal ini bermuara pada lemahnya rilis indikator US, yakni new-home sales dan existing home sales diperiode Juni serta adanya alaporan kerugian dari sejumlah perusahaan home builder US yang turut membantu memeberikan tekanan negatif ke Dow Jones yang ditandai dengan penurunan hingga 300 poin di sesi kamis lalu (26/Jul). Concern teradap subprime mortgage yang belum kunjung berakhir dilingkungan pasar financial global menimbulkan risk-aversion para pelaku pasar sehingga memicu likuidasi carry trade yang men-support mata uang bersuku bunga rendah dan menekan mata uang bersuku bunga tinggi. Selain itu tekanan GU di pertengahan hingga akhir pekan kemarin juga dipicu oleh turunnya data perumahan Inggris periode Juli dari lembaga Nationwide yang disinyalir seagai dampak dari kenaikkan suku bunga Inggris hingga 5 kali sejak Agustus 2006. Senin sebelumnya lembaga property Inggris Rightmove juga melapirkan turunnya inflasi harga perumahan di Ingris dan Wales pada periode Juli. Kondisi ini menggambarkan bahwa lankah kenaikkan suku bungan BoE mulai memberikan dampak pada sektor perumahan. Proyeksi kenaikan suku bunga Ingris berangsur surut di pasar, dimana pihak BoE rabu lalu wakil Gubernurnya,John Gieve juga mengatakan bahwa langkah kenaikan suku bunga gradual adalah yang lebih baik untuk inggris tahun ini dengan target proyeksi kenaikan suku bunga Inggris di pasar hingga akhir tahun 2007 ini adalah 6%.

Sementara itu likuidasi dari aksi carry trade juga menyebabkan tekanan pada mata uang bersuku bunga tini seperti GU. Risk Averaging global dari concern pasar perumahan AS semalam kembali berkembang yang menjadi faktor utama pergerakan pasaar saat itu. Akibanya bisa ditebak UJ dan UCF yan menjadi subyek dari carry trade memeperoleh support secara global. Dikuranginya asset-aset mata uang dengan suku bunga tingi, seperti GU juga menghambat penguatan tajam GU dan kemudian menyebabkan koreksi tajamnya semalam.


Outook for today

Concern terhadap permasalahan subprime mortgage US saat ini sudah memberikan kekhawatiran tersendiri pada pasar finansila di sector kredit global.sementara perkembangan kinerja ekonomi US masih akan dimonitor oleh pasar untuk melihat apakah dampak subprime mortgage yang menular ada sektor kredit global akan memeberikan dampak pada perekonomian secara menyeluruh.

Di pekan ini data ekonomi akan dirilis semarak seperti data tenaga kerja US serta data manufaktur lobal termasuk US didalamnya akan menjadi fokur perhatian pasar meskipun data-data tersebut akan mendapat tempat di bangku belakang di tengah concern pasar yang terpusat ada isu subprime mortgage. Perlu diwaspadai rilis data NFP US, indeks Manufakturing ISM serta pertemuan regular BoE dan ECB (02/agus) nanti yang mampu merubah concern pasar terhadap US.

Jika data consumer confidence, payroll dan ISM dirilis optimis maka akan memperkuat pandangan upbeat dari the FED terhadap kinerja ekonomi US yang mungkin kan sanggup meredam proyeksi pemangkasan suku bunga US yang masih berkembang di pasar saat ini,, namun isu subprime mortgage masih akan berpotensi berkembangg pecan ini dari rilis data pending homesales (02/Agus).

Dari Inggris dan Eropa akan dirilis Indeks Manufaktur PMI masing-masing. Keduanya juga akan diperhatikan setelah data-data ekonomi masing-masing mengalami tekanan belakangan ini. Data indeks bisnis IFO Jerman dan indeks business confidence Belgia belakangan dirilis pesimis. Senada dengan data-data perumahan Inggris yang pekan lalu juga mengalami penurunan. Di sesi berikutnya juga akan dinantikan pertemuan regular ECB dimana kali ini tidak disertai dengan press conference dari residennya Jean Claude Trichet.

Sementara proyeksi yang sedang berkembang saat ini adalah ECB akan kembali menaikkan rate-nya ke level 4,75% pada September tahun ini, sementara BoE diproyeksikan masih akan melanjutkan satu kali kenaikkan rate-nya di level 6.00% hingga akhir tahun ini.

Sunday, July 29, 2007

Will.GU.Kiss.Ma.Red.Thin.Line?


Can.Be.This.Week..
As.Long.2.0252.Completely.Clear...

Saturday, July 28, 2007

Here.I.Come....


Just.Wanna.Post..This.Weekend..With.The.New.Style..
Here.I.Come.
~Lets.Smile.For.Big.Pippin~


Saturday, July 21, 2007

Vacation~Liburan

On.Vacation..
See.Ya.On.August..:)

Jez.Leave.A.Message..
email~fals.inheart@gmail.com
msn~fals_inheart@hotmail.com
yahoo.messenger~nebula_reality

Trade Wise, Trade Well!

Friday, July 13, 2007

Barclays Gets Dutch Court Backing for ABN Amro Bid (Update4)

By Jon Menon and Martijn van der Starre

A LaSalle Bank branch, in Chicago

July 13 (Bloomberg) -- Barclays Plc moved a step closer to buying ABN Amro Holding NV for 63.2 billion euros ($87.1 billion) after a court cleared the Dutch company's sale of LaSalle Bank.

The Dutch Supreme Court today said there were ``no grounds'' to block the sale, overturning a lower court ruling that said ABN Amro should have asked shareholders to approve its $21 billion disposal of Chicago-based LaSalle to Bank of America Corp. The decision removes an obstacle to Barclays's agreement to buy the rest of Amsterdam-based ABN Amro in the biggest banking takeover.

ABN Amro would make Barclays the world's No. 6 bank by assets and give Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America the most market share in Chicago, the third-biggest U.S. city. While the decision is a setback for a group led by Edinburgh-based Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, which offered 70.9 billion euros for ABN Amro, investors and analysts expect a new bid.

``It is inevitable that the Royal Bank consortium will now bid for ABN ex LaSalle,'' said Len Riddell, fund manager at Martin Currie Ltd., which manages $26 billion including Barclays and Royal Bank shares. Executives at Royal Bank, Banco Santander SA and Fortis ``have put too much effort into this deal to simply walk away.''

ABN Amro's stock rose 0.7 percent to 35.56 euros at 2 p.m. in Amsterdam, exceeding Barclays's bid of 34.37 euros and indicating that investors anticipate a higher offer. Barclays shares rose 0.7 percent to 723.5 pence in London, valuing the company at 47.3 billion pounds ($96 billion).

Shares of Royal Bank, Britain's second-biggest lender, rose 0.5 percent to 637.5 pence in London. The group has offered 38.33 euros a share in cash and stock for ABN Amro.

`Removes Uncertainty'

Barclays, the U.K.'s third-largest bank, agreed to buy ABN Amro on April 23 in a deal that would double Barclays's revenue from consumer-banking, galvanize its push into markets such as India and Brazil, and boost securities trading. It is scheduled to send its formal offer to shareholders by July 23.

``We are pleased to see the Supreme Court has made a very clear ruling,'' Barclays Chief Executive Officer John Varley said in comments passed on by spokesman Alistair Smith. ``The ruling is definite and therefore removes uncertainty from the situation, which is good for ABN Amro customers and employees.''

For Bank of America, the second-largest U.S. bank after Citigroup Inc., the purchase of LaSalle would make it the biggest bank in Michigan and Chicago, ahead of JPMorgan Chase & Co. LaSalle would be Bank of America's largest acquisition since it bought MBNA Corp. for about $35 billion two years ago.

`Extremely Happy'

Bank of America ``is extremely happy'' with the judgment and aims to complete the LaSalle takeover as soon as possible, company spokesman Frans van der Grint said today.

Royal Bank CEO Fred Goodwin likely will resist arguments to drop the ABN Amro bid, said Mike Trippitt, a London-based analyst at Oriel Securities Ltd. in London.

``It is over as far as LaSalle goes,'' said Trippitt, who has a ``buy'' rating on Royal Bank shares. ``It would make sense for them to walk away, as LaSalle was a key part of the deal for Royal Bank, but you get the feeling they are not going to let go.''

Royal Bank's bidding group may now lower its bid by 1 euro a share, said Antony Broadbent, a London-based analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. In the revised bid, Royal Bank's group would receive $21 billion in proceeds from the LaSalle sale and wouldn't make a payment for breaking up Bank of America's deal, he said.

Royal Bank, which declined to comment on the court ruling, may still try to buy some of LaSalle's U.S. assets, said Simon Willis, a London-based analyst at NCB Group. Bank of America is most interested in expanding its retail franchise in Chicago, while Royal Bank wants LaSalle's commercial-lending operation, he said. ``A sale of some parts is not entirely impossible.''

Legal Wrangling

The Supreme Court's ruling comes almost three months after Dutch shareholder group VEB sought to block the sale of LaSalle to Bank of America by filing a suit with the Enterprise Chamber of the Amsterdam Court of Appeal. The lower court ruled in favor of the VEB, favoring Royal Bank. Barclays, ABN Amro and Bank of America appealed, sending the case to the Supreme Court.

``We are pleased that the Court has upheld our appeal,'' ABN Amro CEO Rijkman Groenink said in an e-mail today. ``We remain committed to acting in the best interests of our employees, clients and shareholders. It is in the interest of all involved parties to allow a transparent and swift process.''

Advocate General

The Advocate General, an adviser to the court, said last month that the sale didn't require shareholder approval. The Supreme Court followed that guidance in today's decision.

``The Supreme Court annuls the Enterprise Chamber's ruling and rejects the VEB's request to take immediate measures,'' Supreme Court Vice Chairman Hans Fleers said in The Hague today.

The ruling doesn't prevent shareholders from seeking to block the sale of LaSalle. VEB director Peter Paul de Vries, speaking to journalists after the ruling, criticized the decision.

``At this moment it's very likely the LaSalle sale will happen, but the takeover battle is not over,'' De Vries said. ``Everyone who thought shareholders had an extremely big influence was wrong.''

Goodwin was counting on LaSalle to boost Royal Bank's U.S. unit, where profit is flat after $13.6 billion of acquisitions during the past six years. The group's offer for ABN Amro ``has been structured and built, crafted, designed, whatever you call it, around the inclusion of LaSalle,'' Goodwin said at a May 29 conference in London.

Splitting up LaSalle

Royal Bank also wants ABN Amro's Asian operations and corporate banking business. Santander, Spain's No.1 bank, would expand into Italy and double its market share in Brazil with the acquisition of ABN Amro.

Fortis, the largest Belgian financial-services company, is seeking the Dutch retail banking arm and ABN Amro's asset- management and private bank units to create a ``Benelux leader.''

Barclays and the Royal Bank-led group last week won extensions to July 23 for submitting formal offer proposals to shareholders pending today's ruling.

``I don't think this will stop Royal Bank,'' said Dave Bradbury, who helps manage about $13 billion in assets including Royal Bank and Barclays stock at Canada Life Ltd. in London. ``We will have to wait and see what their next move is.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Jon Menon in London: jmenon1@bloomberg.net Martijn van der Starre in Amsterdam vanderstarre@bloomberg.net ; Ben Livesey in London blivesey@bloomberg.net

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Gimme.Suggestion...:)


Leave.Your.Comment.About.This.Chart..Pleaseeee..!!



Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Stay.Away...!!

Me.Stay.Away..Right.Now..:)
Watch.this.pair.for.2-3.day.toward..before.do.sum.charting..